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Five Lessons About Fantasy Baseball Decision Making

Five Lessons About Fantasy Baseball Decision Making

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I probably spend four to six hours commuting to work each week, so I’ve become a huge fan of podcasts as a medium to keep up-to-date on my MLB and fantasy news. Then I recently came across the OverDrive Media Console app which allows me to check out audio books from my local library for free.

After browsing the selection of available books, I was unable to find anything sabermetrically inclined. Nothing by Bill James. Nothing even baseball-related.

But I did come across the book, Thinking, Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman (that’s an affiliate link).It sounded like something I could potentially apply to fantasy baseball, so I gave it a shot.

What It’s About

Turns out there were a lot of connections I could draw to this silly game we play. Our brains have two main thought patterns; fast and slow. Or an instinctual center (System #1) that makes fast assessments and decisions, and a more powerful and deliberate thought center (System #2) capable of in-depth analysis. This video does a great job of explaining the differences between the two systems and even illustrates, if we’re not aware, how the fast thinking system can make incorrect decisions and assessments.

Lesson #1 – We Often Make Very Important Decisions Using Only System #1

One of the anecdotes Kahneman offers is that of a CEO of a large investment company that explained his investment in Ford Motor Company because he, “liked the cars”. Nothing about company earnings, the cost of the stock, quality of leadership, or competitive advantage.

That doesn’t sound like a thorough decision-making process if you were just buying a car for yourself, let alone investing millions of dollars.

We do this in fantasy baseball. We might pick up a player based only on surface stats, without looking at underlying stats like strike out rates, HR/FB, or BABIP.

Or we might drop a valuable player for just the opposite reasons. Making only snap judgements using system #1 and not thoroughly analyzing factors that could make a player’s current stats deceiving or without looking at what a future projection looks like in spite of past performance.

Lesson #2 – System #1 Cannot Be Shut Off.  But You Can Control It With Awareness.

OpticalIllusionThink of the popular optical illusion shown here. (more…)

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How To Evaluate a Trade Using Standings Gain Points

How To Evaluate a Trade Using Standings Gain Points

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In this video I’ll show you how to add a Trade Evaluator into your existing rankings spreadsheet.

Here’s an animated image demonstrating the finished product.  This spreadsheet will pull in all the Rest of Season projections for a player, their total SGP to be earned the rest of the season, and the player’s dollar value (provided you’ve added dollar value calculations to your sheets).

TradeEvaluator

I’ll also show you a practical example and explain a few important things to think about when considering trade offers.

The video is roughly 30 minutes long, but keep in mind that just about everything you create by following the guides on this site are long-term in nature.  With a little bit of maintenance, all of these tools can be used all season long AND into future seasons.

The Step-By-Step Process

I start with a spreadsheet that has already been updated with RoS Projections.  I then show you how to add a tab just to evaluate trades and other roster decisions.  We’ll add drop down menus that pull each player’s statistics, dollar value, and SGPs.

This information will enable you to add clarity to all your roster moves.  No more using your gut to analyze a 2-for-3 player trade involving hitters and pitchers.  You’ll be able to see exactly which side of the offer is better.

If you’re new to the site, I would suggest getting familiar with How To Create Your Rankings Using Standings Gain Points.

A Quick Suggestion

WatchVideoDoubleSpeedIf you’re looking for a way speed things up by watching them 1.5 or 2 (double)  speed, cutting down the time it takes to watch significantly.  Just adjust the settings at the bottom of the video player.  Click the cog and change the “Speed to 1.5 or 2.

I also recommend watching the videos in HD.  A lot of the detail in Excel can only be seen well in 720p or higher.

And a Disclaimer

I created this video using Prince Fielder, Jose Abreu, Billy Hamilton, and Ian Kinsler in an example trade.  News that Fielder is facing season-ending surgery came out the next day!  I apologize for this glaring problem with the example, but hope you can still see the power of using a tool like this to evaluate trades and free agency acquisitions.

Here’s The Video

Thanks for Watching

Stay smart.

Questions?  Comments?  Future Video Ideas?

Let me know in the comments below.

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Selling Pitcher Wins – Why and How

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At this point in the 2013 season, the Detroit Tigers are 68-45.  The Los Angeles Dodgers are 64-50.  Max Scherzer has a 2.84 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP.  Clayton Kershaw has a 1.91 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP.  So these two pitchers are having phenomenal years and play on teams with similar won-loss records.  We could expect similar won-loss records for the pitchers, right?  You’re smart enough to know that’s not the case.

Scherzer is 16-1 and Kershaw is only 10-7.  In fact, 19 pitchers have more wins than Kershaw.  Heck, Joe Saunders has 10 wins, a 4.58 ERA, and a 1.50 WHIP.  All the while playing for the 53-61 Seattle Mariners.

Need another one?  In 2012, Cliff Lee started 30 games and went 6-9 for the 81-81 Phillies.  At this point in the 2013 season the Phillies are 52-62 and Lee already is 10-5.  In 2012 he had a 3.16 ERA.  To this point in 2013 his ERA is 3.11.

You Can’t Predict Wins

Of course, I cherry-picked these examples.  But they illustrate a very important point.  You can’t predict pitcher wins.  Wins are by far, the most unpredictable of any common fantasy baseball category.

Exploit This Knowledge

Most semi-experienced fantasy baseball players know wins are unpredictable.   But what other choice does a manager chasing a title with a weak score in the wins category have?  They’re faced with the choice of chasing wins or having blind faith that their fortunes will reverse.  This is an opportunity for you.

Look at your roster and see if you have any marketable players in the wins category.  Maybe you can offer a Tillman, Masterson, Lynn, or Latos and upgrade in more steady and predictable categories of weakness.  Or maybe you have an elite Scherzer, Wainwright, Zimmermann, or Verlander and can land an elite player in return.

What To Ask In Return

I love this article by Michael Salfino of Yahoo! where he outlines the pitchers who have been “unluckiest” in the wins category this year.

One strategy you could employ would be to trade a pitcher that has been “lucky” in wins (like a Scherzer) for an “unlucky” player (like a Strasburg) and ask for something additional in return.  Something like an upgraded hitter, a stolen base specialist, or a closer.

Look at your team needs and try to convert the unpredictable wins into a steady and reliable producer in your own category of need.

Follow the principles outlined by Fred Zinkie in “Smart Elsewhere #6“.  Review the league standings and see which teams can benefit the most from a few more wins.  Reach out to them and let them know that your “lucky” wins pitcher is available and may be able to help them climb in the standings.

Conclusion

You can trade away wins even if you don’t have a strong hold on the category.  This is all about converting a very fickle and volatile statistic into one that you can more reasonably predict.  Don’t chase wins.  Let others do it.

Be smart.

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