Tag: Martin Prado

Is Multiple Position Eligibility Worth Something?

Think of players like Ben Zobrist, Martin Prado, and Matt Carpenter.

In recent seasons, players like these have been eligible to play multiple positions. The big question is, “All else equal, should you pay more for a multi-eligible player than a player only eligible at one position?”.

I think there’s a clear answer to this question. And it might surprise you.

The Argument That They Are Not Worth More

Would you pay $2 more for Player A because he’s also second base eligible?

Player A (2B / SS): .272, 10 HR, 83 R, 52 RBI, 10 SB

Player B (SS):  .275, 11 HR, 78 R, 55 RBI, 8 SB

Some very intelligent fantasy baseball minds will tell you that a player with multi-position eligibility is not worth more. For instance:

However, since playing more than one position doesn’t mean the player will produce any extra stats, he doesn’t have any greater an actual dollar value than someone who plays only one position.

~ Larry Schechter, Winning Fantasy Baseball

If you haven’t read Schechter’s book, you need to.  It is loaded with very clear and well-reasoned thoughts and strategies like this one.

When you read the book, it becomes clear that Larry has a very bottom line approach.  If a possible decision ends up adding dollar value to your team, you choose that option.  If there is no measurable benefit in dollar value, you don’t.

I love the approach.  That’s why I think everyone should create their own rankings. Attaching dollar values to players makes all decisions systematically easier to make. You no longer have to agonize over decisions like, “Should I drop player X and add player Y from the waiver wire?”.  It’s a lot easier to simply look at each player’s projected dollar value for the rest of the season and decide.

With that said, I think it’s a little short-sighted to only look at the dollar value of a player at a given point in time.

Let’s Play Cards

My wife says my analogies are horrible, but I’m going to try a few on you anyways. Before we get into specific scenarios involving fantasy baseball, let’s first consider a couple of card game examples.

Blackjack

We can probably agree that the ace is the most powerful card in blackjack. A big reason for this is that it’s a gateway to reaching the total of 21.  Without an ace you need a combination of two cards to get to 11 or 21 (2 & 9, 3 & 8, etc.). But the ace gets you there in one card.

Another huge power of the ace is its ability to act as two different cards, a 1 or an 11. It’s an insurance policy. You can behave as if it’s an 11 and quickly change it to a 1 if you bust. It lets you take risks you wouldn’t otherwise take. Keep this in mind.

I’ll end the blackjack example with a question. Assume an 8 in blackjack could be used as an 8 or a 3. You get to decide. Would that make the card more valuable to you than a card that could only be used as an 8?

Poker

I’m not a poker guru but I played my share of Texas Hold’em games in the early 2000’s just like everyone else.

In my mind, a huge decision-making factor in poker is the number of helpful cards (or “outs”) left in the deck.

For example, if you have a pair of 9s, we know there are only two helpful cards remaining (the other two 9s) to help you make three of a kind.

Or maybe you have an open-ended straight like a 4, 5, 6, and 7.  In this case there are four 3s and four 8s that would finish of your straight, for a total of eight “outs”.

Your Hand Your Goal Outs
One Pair Three of a Kind 2
Two Pair Full House 4
Inside Straight Straight 4
Open-ended Straight Straight 8
Four Flush Cards Flush 9
Straight / Flush Draw Straight / Flush 15

Continue reading “Is Multiple Position Eligibility Worth Something?”

How Do You Account For and Value Players with Multiple Position Eligibility?

Zobrist_Prado_Santana_CarpenterHow do we handle the multi-position players like Ben Zobrist and Martin Prado?  When a player is eligible to be slotted at 2B, SS, and OF, how do we value that player?

This question came up in the comments of my last post on “How to Add Positional Ranking to Your Spreadsheet“, from a reader named Michael (I welcome your questions too).  In this post I’ll take a look at how I handle this and look at a more inticate approach you could take to get the information.

I must warn you that it takes a lot of new formulas and manipulation of your existing rankings spreadsheet to accommodate multiple positions.  To make sure you have something to reference, at the end of this post I’ll provide a download link to an example Excel file you can download.

Assign the Player to the Weakest Position They’re Eligible For

This is what I currently do.  For example, let’s take a player like Ben Zobrist, who in the 2014 season currently qualifies at SS, 2B, and OF.

In the Player ID Map, I attempt to classify each player at the weakest position they’re eligible for.  I do that by determining what replacement level is for a standard 12-team mixed rotisserie league.

Is the “weakest position” going to be the same for every league?  No it’s not.  It’s probably close in most leagues.  Catcher will almost surely be the weakest in any format.  Then Shortstop will generally be the next weakest, followed by 2B, 3B, 1B, and OF.  But positions might change a little in an 8-team league or a 15-team league, in an AL-only league versus a standard league.

That’s a big reason why I started this site.  It’s not always safe to give blanket advice, and I think the best approach is to calculate all of these things for your own league.  You’ll be better off for it.

How Do I Determine the Weakest Positions?

Assuming you’ve done some kind of work to create your own rankings (if not, start here), the weakest position can easily be determined by looking at the replacement level information you’ve calculated (if you want to refresh your memory on replacement level, read this).

Looking back to one of my preseason files for the 2014 season, this is the replacement level information for one of my leagues.
REPL_LEVEL_TABLE

The weaker positions are those with the lowest replacement level.  So in this league it’s C, SS, 2B, and then 1B, 3B, and OF are essentially the same.

Back to Zobrist

Going back to our example of Ben Zobrist who is eligible at SS, 2B, and OF, if we’re trying to assign him to the weakest position he’s eligible for, he would be assigned to SS.

Thinking of Martin Prado who is eligible at 2B, 3B, and OF, he would be assigned to 2B.

Carlos Santana who is eligible at 3B and C would be assigned to C.

Why Do I Only Assign a Player to One Position?

I have two reasons for this.

The main reason is because assigning players to the weakest position they are eligible for gives the player his greatest value.  I’ll demonstrate more on this in a minute.  But if you’re calculating Zobrist’s dollar value, it comes out highest when he’s classified as a SS.

Going along with this, fantasy baseball leagues are becoming more efficient market places.  As we all get better and smarter about playing fake baseball, people generally realize they’re best off putting Buster Posey at catcher and not at 1B.

This won’t always be the case, but for the most part the obvious situations like your Buster Poseys and Carlos Santanas are going to be assigned where they belong.  Because of this, it’s somewhat of a wasted effort to try calculating values for them at 1B or 3B.

The second reason is a technological one.  You run into a lot of trouble having the same player appear multiple times in one spreadsheet (on multiple rows).  Not only does it become confusing to have to remember that Zobrist’s name appears three times in your draft list, but it also greatly complicates (or eliminates) your ability to calculate dollar values.

How Much Does a Player’s Position Affect Their Value?

Is there really a big difference between a SS and an OF?  Let’s take a look.

I am running the exercise below using Steamer’s 2014 preseason projections.  The dollar values assume a 12-team standard mixed rotisserie league with 14 hitters (C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UTIL) and 9 pitchers.  The dollar values are calculated using standings gain points and my approach to calculating player values.

Here’s the replacement level information again:REPL_LEVEL_TABLE

Let’s start out with Zobrist.  You can see below that he was projected for 8.73 SGP before adjusting for replacement level.  When you then account for replacement level and figure out his “SGP Over Replacement Level” you see that he becomes much more valuable as a shortstop.  Over $4 more valuable than when he’s classified as an OF!

BEN_ZOBRIST_REPL_LEVEL Continue reading “How Do You Account For and Value Players with Multiple Position Eligibility?”