Module 4

STATISTICS

Replacement Level

• Normal distribution bell curve
  • In the middle of the distribution the mean, median, and mode are the same
• You can try to apply the normal distribution to baseball talent
  • But we usually measure outcomes, not talent
  • Be clear about what you’re doing
• Bill James first to write about “replacement level” instead of just average (1984 abstract, 1985 abstract)
• Earlier writers argued for using average as the comparison point
• James also argues that baseball talent is not normally distributed, it’s skewed.
• Keith Woolner has a great explanation of replacement level in 2002 Baseball Prospectus Annual
• Some people talk about replacement level as “the bench player” while others talk about the “zero cost option” (free agents, 26th man, etc.).  Make sure you understand
• Best method of using replacement level is to do it for each position

TECHNOLOGY

R and R Studio Overview

• Graphic interface, presenting graphics, exploring data, fitting statistical models
• Interpreted language, not compiled
• SQL works for data
• Console is on the left of the window and is where the coding takes place
• Environment tab is on the top right and displays your variables while moving through the code
• History tab is also on the top right.  The “To Source” button sends selected code to a text editor window that can be used to save code for later use.
• Help is on the bottom right and is very good, detailed
• Set variables as you would in traditional programming (e.g. a = 2 + 4, a =6)
• You can highlight code and then use the “Run” command in the Source window, then just the highlighted code gets run
• Before you start doing work you need to “Set a Working Directory”

R Tips and Tricks

• CTRL + L clears all information in the Console
• Up and Down arrow keys allow you to cycle through the different commands you have already typed into the Console, an easy way to rerun a command

R Variable TYpes

• Can hover over variables in the “Environment” tab to see what type of variable you have (string, number, etc.)
  • Numeric
  • String
  • Logical (Boolean, True/False)
    

R Data Frames

• Similar to a spreadsheet or database
• Multiple columns, each column can be of different data type

R Console Commands

• summar(dataset_name) – returns min, max, median, mean, 1st quartile, 3rd quartile for each field in the dataset
• view(dataset_name) – loads the data set into a table view
• mode(variable_name) – returns the data type (str, num, bool)
• plot(dataset$fieldname_for_x_axis,dataset$fieldname_for_y_axis,xlab=”x axis label”,ylab=”y axis label”, pch = “plot data point type e.g. diamond, circle, etc.”, col=”color of plot data points”) – scatter plot of one field on the x axis and one field on the y axis
• sqrt(dataset_name$fieldname) – square root
• head(dataset_name) – gives top several records at the top of the dataset
• tail(dataset_name) – bottom six records in the dataset

HISTORY

Allan Roth

• First full-time statistician employee for an MLB club
• Suggested tracking all kind of split information (day/night, left/right, counts, batted ball location, etc.)
• A huge data collection driver
• In 1950 Branch Rickey went to PIT, but Roth stayed with Dodgers.
• The 1954 LIFE article from Rickey and Roth was groundbreaking
  • First time run differential was used to analyze success
  • They modelled offense and defense using the formulas they built
• O – D = G
  • Offense – Defense = Games Behind
  • Offense = OBP + ISO + “Clutch”
  • Defense = OPP BA + WALK/HBP + “Pitching Clutch” – Strike Outs – Fielding