At the end of my last post, “Maybe I’m Wrong About BvP“, I mentioned an online survey was forthcoming… And here it is.
I say nobody should go it alone because my hope with this survey is to use the SFBB community to identify the best DFS tools out there, what types of information people want to see, and what sites are currently providing that information. Once we have that information, we can start figuring out the best way to bring it all together.
Please take the time to complete this survey, especially if you are using specific websites, tools, or resources to develop and set your daily lineups.
The survey should load right below, or you can go here to contribute.
I’m a little embarrassed about this. One of the reasons I started this site is because it aggravates me when people over-simplify things or fail to do proper analysis before making claims.
And I just did this myself.
What I Did Wrong
To fully understand where I went wrong, you should probably read Part 2 in my series documenting my DFS journey, “The Book and Addressing the Myths“.
I read The Book. And it’s clear. It’s right there in black and white for all to see. Don’t use BvP to make decisions.
An excerpt from “The Book”, by Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin
So what’s the problem?
It might help if we first take a step back. When we’re analyzing a particular baseball statistic (pick one), we often find that they’re not predictive from one year to the next. Take batting average for instance. We know that just because a batter hit .300 last year, it’s not a safe bet to count on that repeating itself.
What do we do in this case? We disaggregate the data. We break it down into other component statistics that we can much more reliably project. Instead of looking only at batting average, we’ll start to look at strikeout rate, walk rate, batted ball profiles, historical BABIP, and more.
I Should Have Done This with Batter-Vs-Pitcher Stats
I should have thought to disagreggate things. After all, just like I get along well with certain people and others make me want to drink bleach, some hitters are going to “have an edge” on certain pitchers and they’re going to be overmatched by others.
Not all pitchers are created equal. Not all hitters are created equal.
Whether it’s a batter’s swing path, a pitcher’s arm slot, a batter’s ability to go the other way, a pitcher’s level of deception, a batter’s inability to hit the down-and-in pitch, or a pitcher’s proclivity to throw a changeup in two-strike counts, there are many variables at play in a BvP matchup.
And it is VERY likely that these variables give an edge to the pitcher or the hitter. It’s VERY possible that one of these variables could put the odds overwhelmingly in one party’s favor. It’s also VERY possible that for every factor giving an edge to the hitter that there is an equal and offsetting factor giving an advantage to the pitcher.
It’s not that BvP is useless. It’s not that it has no predictive value. Certain hitters have an edge over specific pitchers. And vice versa. Of course they do. It just makes sense.
The problem is that we don’t know how to separate out the BvP matchups that are predictive those that don’t. Due to small sample sizes, when you go to break it down, BvP matchups probably fall into these nine buckets:
Bucket
Description
1.
Hitters with an edge over a pitcher, exceeding the expectations due to good luck
2.
Hitters with an edge over a pitcher, performing right at expectations due to neutral luck
3.
Hitters with an edge over a pitcher, underperforming the expectations due to bad luck
4.
Hitter with a neutral matchup against a pitcher, exceeding the expectations due to good luck
5.
Hitters with a neutral matchup against a pitcher, performing right at expectations due to neutral luck
6.
Hitters with a neutral matchup against a pitcher, underperforming the expectations due to bad luck
7.
Hitters overmatched by a pitcher, exceeding the expectations due to good luck
8.
Hitters overmatched by a pitcher, performing right at expectations due to neutral luck
9.
Hitters overmatched by a pitcher, underperforming the expectations due to bad luck
And just like when you combine a bunch of bright colors of Play Doh into one and end up with brown; when you combine all of these different buckets into one, you end up thinking that batter versus pitcher matchups don’t matter.
Welcome to the third part in my series documenting my journey of getting started with daily fantasy baseball. In the first segment, I did some introductory background reading. In the second segment, I took a look at some common statistics that you might be inclined to look at but that have been proven to be misleading (Batter versus Pitcher stats and players in the midst of hot or cold streaks).
The book is a tremendous resource if you’re like me and just getting started. I presume it’s also quite helpful even if you’ve been playing the daily game for a while.
If I’m being honest, you will save yourself a lot of time by buying his book instead of waiting for me to slowly process my own way through DFS and writing about it. Once you read Bales’ book, then come back to me to see how to implement the topics covered in an Excel solution. Bales has created an excellent beginner’s guide to daily fantasy baseball by giving you strategies, tools, websites, and outlining the exact information you should be looking at when generating lineups.
One topic I’ve seen mentioned in the book and repeated many times online is that to be successful at DFS you need to play the game regularly (“grind”) and as such you need to develop an efficient routine that allows you to create quality optimized lineups regularly. My hope is to use Excel (and maybe other technology tools) to do this.
My “Aha Moment”
There are two significant benefits I got from “Fantasy Baseball For Smart People”. The first is that it’s a convenient and complete package. You could probably get nearly all of the information from the book by reading through the various articles I linked to in Part 1 of this series. If you go that route you even get the information for free. But this book will save you time and puts them in a nice easy-to-use and convenient package.
As much as I love technology, I’m still a “book-in-hand” kind of guy. So I bought the paperback, which lets me dog ear pages I want to remember and reference easily in the future. There’s no easy way to do that with the 20-30 articles I linked to in Part 1.
The second big benefit I get from the book is an insight I did not see anywhere else in my prior readings.
The goal isn’t to maximize points (in your lineup), but to maximize win probability.
~ Jonathan Bales – Fantasy Baseball for Smart People
Maybe this is obvious to everyone, but it wasn’t to me. It’s a significant difference between season-long leagues and DFS.
I can’t envision a scenario in a season-long rotisserie league that you would not want to maximize your projected points in the standings. It’s a simple concept that having the most points in the standings gives you the greatest likelihood of winning the league.
But there’s an interesting wrinkle that I alluded to in Part 1 that changes things in DFS. Player selection is not mutually exclusive. I know, I know. There I go again using math words. This is a fancy way of saying that the players you choose for your team can (and inevitably will) overlap with players chosen for other teams.
Bales’ point can be illustrated by a simple example… (more…)
“The Process”, My Latest Book, with Jeff Zimmerman
The 2024 edition of The Process, by Jeff Zimmerman and Tanner Bell, is now available! Click here to read what folks like John Pausma, Phil Dussault, Eno Sarris, Clay Link, Rob Silver, Rudy Gamble, and others have to say about the book.
The Process is your one-stop resource for better drafting, in-season management, and developing strategies to become a better manager. The book is loaded with unique studies, tips, and strategies you won't find anywhere else. Click here for more details.
