Check out the updated SFBB Resources Page.
Now that the season is underway and you no longer need to exert so much energy on draft preparation, it’s a great time to read a book, check out in-season analysis tools, or try listening to new MLB or fantasy baseball podcasts.
I’ve broken the resources page down into segments for books, free tools, premium tools, and podcasts. Know of a great tool that I’m missing? Please let me know on Twitter.
Welcome to the second segment in my series documenting my own journey of getting started with daily fantasy baseball. In the first segment I did some introductory background reading, started to identify some analysts I can trust, took notes about research topics to focus on, and started planning features to be included in an Excel spreadsheet.
In this next segment we will take a closer look at some of the biggest myths that I’m seeing perpetuated out there.
I didn’t think I’d have to say anything like that until my daughters were teenagers… But here we are.
Just because you read something on the internet doesn’t make it true. We’ve all heard that before, right? I got up on my soapbox at the end of Part 1 and warned you to be careful out there… And here’s an example of why:
I would argue that BvPs are the most reliable out of all the sets we commonly use because they have the most amount of similar variables.
While it is wrong to accept BvPs as fact, it is equally wrong to discount their merit entirely.
BvPs are just one of the many things you should consider when building a roster but they are not the only thing.
Those are all from the same article talking about the merits of BvPs, or “Batter versus Pitcher” statistics. I promise you the article exists but I am not going to link to it. I’m not here to start fights. I merely want to point out that this misinformation exists, both in the form of online advice and it must also be a viable strategy in some DFS players’ minds.
I can definitively say they don’t because it’s been studied by people much smarter than me. Studies using years and years of MLB data have been completed on this topic multiple times and have found that batter-vs-pitcher (or “BvPs”) information is not predictive unless you are talking at least a history of over 100 ABs between the two players.
So we have credible studies based on oodles of data performed by very smart people. Or we have baseless claims, anecdotes of individual examples, and Paul Goldschmidt’s numbers against Tim Lincecum on the other side.
If you find a study that suggest BvPs are meaningful, please let me know. But from what I have seen so far, it appears to be very irresponsible to suggest BvPs have value.
The main and most well known study I’m referring to is from “The Book” by Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin. They studied “batters owning pitchers” and flipped it and studied “pitchers owning batters” from the time frame of 1999-2001. They identified players that “owned” other players during that three year span. Then they looked at what happened for those same players in 2002. In a very nice coincidence, in 2002 the hitters had 361 plate appearances against the pitchers they “owned”. And in that same season the pitchers had 361 plate appearances against hitters they “owned”.
The results were that the hitters had a wOBA of .349 against the pitchers they owned. These 30 hitters that were studied had wOBAs against those same pitchers ranging from .500 – .800 the two prior seasons. Then in 2002 they hit a combined .349, which is essentially league average.
And the pitchers that had dominated a group of batters allowed a wOBA of .343. Those 30 pitchers had wOBAs allowed ranging from below .100 to .210 from 1999 – 2001. Then in 2002 they too only allowed a league average wOBA against.
The results in The Book are clear: (more…)
I’ve been playing rotisserie baseball for darn near 20 years at this point, but as I write this article, I’ve never before played a day of daily fantasy sports.
I’m generally familiar with the concept. I’ve read many strategy articles on the topic. But I’ve never put together an effort to dive in and develop a formal plan about how I’m going to attack this new game.
In this series of posts I will document my journey and the resources I’m using to get myself familiar with the game. I must repeat that I have never done this before. I can’t sit here and promise you daily fantasy riches. But my goal is to find a way to play this daily game smartly, efficiently, and strategically.
I know we’re not playing poker here. But because I’m an ultra-conservative accountant that hates giving away money, I’m reminded of this famous quote from the movie Rounders.
I’m not about to jump in the DFS waters without getting a plan together. While there are probably a ton of new players jumping into daily fantasy baseball when the season starts, I know there are a lot of sharks swimming in those waters.
I can’t go in blindly. I can’t go in lazily. And I can’t assume my knowledge of baseball will be enough to win.
Many readers of this site probably know A LOT more about the topics and tools for this game than I do. I’m going to share the resources and articles that seem helpful to me, but I’m sure there are other (and better) resources out there. Please share those tools and resources you find most helpful in the comments below so we can all do this more effectively. And if you think I’m wrong in something that I’ve said or if I’m leading people in the right direction, let me know. Let’s have a cordial debate.
I’m excited and nervous… Let’s go!
Good question. I suppose I should address this before we get started.
I’ve mentioned many times on this site before that I’m married and have two daughters, I work full-time, and try to run this site on the side. From what I do know about daily fantasy baseball, my impression is that it takes a good amount of effort and time to play effectively. I know that weather can be a big factor in games. Lineups may change late in the afternoon. And I work until 6PM EST most nights. I can’t get on many of the DFS sites at work. So if I get home at 6:30, that doesn’t leave much time to eat dinner with my family, set a lineup, check the weather, make late lineup swaps, etc.
So that’s the angle I’m operating from. I’m not only looking to learn the most effective ways to play. I also I need to find ways to play this game well in that environment. It might mean coming up with lineups the day before. It might mean finding services or apps that can notify me of lineup or weather problems. Or it might mean only playing on the weekends. I don’t know yet. But if I can’t find a way to play on a level playing field during the week, I won’t do it.
There has to be a way.
A lot of the introductory material about getting started with DFS baseball assumes you come in without any advanced (or even moderate) knowledge of baseball statistics.
My first thought about that is it’s actually intriguing that there’s a need to explain some of those statistics. See the Matt Damon video quote above. Maybe I won’t be the sucker at the table.
With that said, I’m going to assume you know what FIP, K/9, wOBA, regression, and SIERA are.
I don’t mean that you can rattle off the exact formula for wOBA or even know the specific differences between SIERA and FIP, but just that you have a rough concept of what those terms are. If those terms are Greek to you, I might suggest digging around the Fangraphs Glossary for a while to acclimate yourself to the sabermetric terminology.
I’m going to start on this journey by reading up on as much strategy as I can. I’m not talking about player-specific information. Just general strategies at how to win at this new game. I’ll try to summarize my findings here and then I’ll link to the articles I’ve read at the bottom of this post.
My notes are below. I want to reiterate that I am just compiling this information from the web and summarizing my thoughts. Credit for these original works goes to the authors mentioned later in this article.
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