I recently participated in a 2014 mock draft with representatives from BaseballProf.com, BaseballPress.com, FantasyBaseballCrackerJacks.com, and Razzball.com. Mock drafts at this point in the offseason are to be taken with a grain of salt (the draft was completed before the Fielder-Kinsler trade and before any free agency signings occurred). But it was a very interesting exercise in seeing how perceptions of players have changed after the 2013 season.
My First Round Pick Raised Some Eye Brows
I had the eighth pick. And as you can see from the results, the first six picks went as you might expect with names like Trout, Cabrera, Cano, and Goldschmidt.
Troy Tulowitzki was picked seventh, right before me (this is important, remember this).
Then it came to me and I was faced with a very difficult decision. As a subscriber to the belief that, “You can’t win the league with your first pick, but you can lose it”, I typically preach being conservative in the first round. But there was nothing “conservative” about the batch of players sitting before me:
- Ryan Braun (PED risk)
- Joey Votto (unspectacular of late)
- Adam Jones (can’t argue with the production, but plate discipline bothers me)
- Chris Davis (.240 batting average risk?)
- Clayton Kershaw (too early for me at eight)
So I chose Hanley Ramirez.
The Response
To say the pick has been questioned by some is a bit of an understatement. I was called out, labelled a masochist, and called crazy (30:40 mark).
Granted, I think these things were all said in jest. But I don’t think any other pick in the draft earned comments like these.
I Don’t Get It
I completely understand this being considered risky. And I can buy into the argument that eighth is too early. But let’s put that aside for now and debate something that I think is being overlooked.
I am surprised that nobody questioned the pick of Troy Tulowitzki just one pick earlier! I think Hanley Ramirez is the number one shortstop for the 2014 season. Not Tulo.
Let’s go through the possible counterarguments.
Hanley Ramirez is Injury Prone
May I present to you games played, by season, for Tulowitzki and Ramirez:
| Season | Tulowitzki | Ramirez |
|---|---|---|
| 2006 | n/a* | 158 |
| 2007 | 155 | 154 |
| 2008 | 101 | 153 |
| 2009 | 151 | 151 |
| 2010 | 122 | 142 |
| 2011 | 143 | 92 |
| 2012 | 47 | 157 |
| 2013 | 126 | 86 |
| Average | 120.7 | 136.6 |
*This was Tulowitzki’s rookie year. He did play in 25 MLB games, but I exclude it from the average because he didn’t play a full year and it was not due to injury.
There’s a perception out there that Hanley Ramirez is injury prone. That should be revised to state that he has experienced significant injury problems in two of the last three years. He’s been dependable the rest of his career. And much more dependable than Tulowitzki.
Tulo has only surpassed the 140 games played threshold three times in seven years! That’s six out of eight for Hanley.
The two seasons Ramirez did not reach the 140 game mark were due to shoulder surgery and a thumb ligament injury. I have nothing to back this up, but those don’t indicate “injury prone” to me, whereas Tulowitzki’s leg injuries do earn him the “injury prone” label in my mind.
Hanley Ramirez Is Getting Old.
He’s currently 29 and will be 30 during the 2014 season. Tulowitzki is only 10 months younger.
Hanley Can’t Repeat His 21% Home Run per Fly Ball Rate
Probably true. But he also had an 18.5% rate in his 64 game stint with the Dodgers in 2012. If he were to accumulate 600 plate appearances with just his career averages (nevermind the rates he’s displayed with the Dodgers) of a 36.9% fly ball rate and a 14.0% home run per fly ball rate, that translates to 24 HR.
And regardless of if he can repeat the elevated rates or not, you might find these stats interesting:
| Measure | Tulowitzki | Ramirez |
|---|---|---|
| Career BB% | 9.8% | 9.5% |
| Career K% | 15.8% | 16.6% |
| Career FB% | 38.4% | 36.9% |
| Career HR/FB% | 15.0% | 14.0% |
These two are similar hitters. It’s going to come down to playing time/health to differentiate them. And as presented above, the edge definitively goes to Ramirez.
Hanley Can’t Repeat His .363 BABIP and .345 AVG
Probably true. But his career BABIP is .334. He has displayed an ability to post an elevated BABIP. Had he posted a .334 BABIP in 2013 he would have hit .324. His career BA is .302.
Hanley Is Slowing Down. He Doesn’t Steal As Much.
True. He’s not going to steal 30 bases. But he has stolen 17 bases in 150 games played for the Dodgers.
Tulowitzki will not surpass five stolen bases.
Let’s Summarize.
We can’t assume bad health for Hanley. And we can assume better health than Tulowitzki. If we do assume 600 PAs, we’re looking at something in the neighborhood of 25 HR, 15-20 SB, and a .300 BA. Counting stats are harder to predict, but he does have 92 R and 101 RBI in 608 PAs with Los Angeles. Not to mention what the influx of a possibly healthy Matt Kemp could mean for run production in the Dodger’s lineup.
Hanley Ramirez deserves to be drafted before Troy Tulowitzki.
What Do you Think?
Am I crazy? Let me know in the comments below.
Thanks for reading. Make smart choices.
Hey Tanner, good to see you’ve been keeping up with the podcast in the off-season! Anyway, I think there’s two reasons I, and many others I’m sure, make these types of comments about early mocks. First, Hanley hasn’t been a first rounder in years. Even though he has been in the past, every year when you first see a new name in the first round, it’s a surprise and “feels” wrong. It will take some time to get used to the idea that Hanley is now considered a first rounder, the same way Adam Jones is suddenly being taken in the first even though he posted nearly identical seasons in 2012 and 2013. So the knee jerk reaction is always “wow you’re weighting the last season too highly and suffering from recency bias.”
The other explanation is that us observers, or at least me, don’t really look through the mock closely and put ourselves in the position of the drafter. The question that you need to ask someone critical of the pick is simply, “well then, who would you have taken instead?”. In looking at the other options, I have no clue! I don’t like any of them and wouldn’t feel comfortable that early. This is always something I deal with way before I even start my projections because nothing feels right just yet.
One other note that is very important to the Tulo-Hanley comparison is that Tulo has completely stopped stealing bases. So Hanley is essentially Tulo, but with an extra 15-20 steals. By taking Tulo earlier, you’re betting that he has a better chance of staying healthy because given the same playing time, I’d have to imagine Hanley would earn more fantasy value.
Mike, I love the podcast. I’m starving for fantasy baseball content, especially podcasts. I think it’s a great idea that you guys are keeping an offseason schedule. Everyone else has closed up shop for the winter.
Your point about putting yourself in the shoes of the drafter is dead on. I could not believe the discomfort I had in sitting at that eighth pick. The very interesting thing about this early mock for me is that I was forced to go through all the feelings you mention (shock, awe, no way is he a first rounder) very quickly.
I am having some second thoughts that Hanley may be too risky there, and that’s why I wanted to simplify the argument above to just “Who is the number one shortstop?”. And with the stolen base factor you mention as well as a better health history than Tulo, I’m giving the nod to Hanley.
“Hanley Ramirez deserves to be drafted before Troy Tulowitzki.” I agree, two years ago I drafted him in the second round ahead of Cano. Everyone called me crazy and while I didnt win that year, keeping him helped me win this year. (its a 3 year keeper league)
People are sour on him bc of the Marlins days but if he puts together a healthy 2014 in that LAD lineup he will have a huge year and will be a consensus first rounder for 2015.
Rudy, you bring up a good point that it has not been that long since he was going in the first and second rounds. We can’t ignore some of the recent injury history, but the guy is incredibly productive when healthy. We’ll have to see how the rest of the offseason goes with mock drafts and ADPs, but with the “this feels wrong” Mike mentioned above, the injury history, and the sourness that has built up from the Marlins days, maybe we’ll get lucky and can hope he falls into the early second round.
You chose well, or at least as good as you could’ve given the pick and situation.
I’ll break out in hives if I’m picking anywhere 5-9 in 2014. There’s no definative pick there and I plan to write about it as I collect some more data. I did float this pick of Yasiel at #5:
http://fantasybaseballcrackerjacks.com/2013/11/14/2014-fantasy-baseball-first-round-draft/
I really appreciate the comment Mike Podhorzer made as well. I think he hit the nail on the head with all the “feels.”
Clave, I still need to finalize projections for all players for 2014 to see exactly where Hanley ends up. But my gut is telling me the pick has merit, but it was still a reach in the sense that the consensus belief is that he’s not worth a first rounder. So I’d have been better off going with a more popular pick like Braun or Votto and trying to get Hanley on the return in the second round. I’ve heard some people say they wouldn’t take him before the fourth or fifth rounds. But I can’t believe the projections are going to come out that way… We’ll see.
PS – This reminded me that I never wrote a recap of any kind with that mock draft. Man, I phoned that sucker in.
Using 8 years of games played data to determine injury-proneness for 2014 doesn’t seem prudent. Including more than ~3 most recent seasons skews the sample and makes it less predictive.
Thanks, Carnac. Yes. You’re probably right, I didn’t consider that I was slanting the results. The last three years comes out about even for the two then. But I’m still bothered more by Tulowitzki’s injuries. Something qualitatively different about those, in my mind. Do you know of any research about hitter injuries that says three years of information is more predictive? I am aware of the PizzaCutter article last year about pitcher injuries and predicting those. But I don’t think it addressed hitters?
I like them both as Mid to Late 1st Round Picks. I give the edge slightly to Hanley in a Free-Agent Contract year.