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2014 Mock Draft – Tulowitzki or Hanley?

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I recently participated in a 2014 mock draft with representatives from BaseballProf.com, BaseballPress.com, FantasyBaseballCrackerJacks.com, and Razzball.com.  Mock drafts at this point in the offseason are to be taken with a grain of salt (the draft was completed before the Fielder-Kinsler trade and before any free agency signings occurred).  But it was a very interesting exercise in seeing how perceptions of players have changed after the 2013 season.

My First Round Pick Raised Some Eye Brows

I had the eighth pick.  And as you can see from the results, the first six picks went as you might expect with names like Trout, Cabrera, Cano, and Goldschmidt.

Troy Tulowitzki was picked seventh, right before me (this is important, remember this).

Then it came to me and I was faced with a very difficult decision.  As a subscriber to the belief that, “You can’t win the league with your first pick, but you can lose it”, I typically preach being conservative in the first round.  But there was nothing “conservative” about the batch of players sitting before me:

  • Ryan Braun (PED risk)
  • Joey Votto (unspectacular of late)
  • Adam Jones (can’t argue with the production, but plate discipline bothers me)
  • Chris Davis (.240 batting average risk?)
  • Clayton Kershaw (too early for me at eight)

So I chose Hanley Ramirez.

The Response

To say the pick has been questioned by some is a bit of an understatement.  I was called out, labelled a masochist, and called crazy (30:40 mark).

Granted, I think these things were all said in jest. But I don’t think any other pick in the draft earned comments like these.

I Don’t Get It

I completely understand this being considered risky.  And I can buy into the argument that eighth is too early.  But let’s put that aside for now and debate something that I think is being overlooked.

I am surprised that nobody questioned the pick of Troy Tulowitzki just one pick earlier! I think Hanley Ramirez is the number one shortstop for the 2014 season.  Not Tulo.

Let’s go through the possible counterarguments.

Hanley Ramirez is Injury Prone

May I present to you games played, by season, for Tulowitzki and Ramirez:

Season Tulowitzki Ramirez
2006 n/a* 158
2007 155 154
2008 101 153
2009 151 151
2010 122 142
2011 143 92
2012 47 157
2013 126 86
Average 120.7 136.6

*This was Tulowitzki’s rookie year.  He did play in 25 MLB games, but I exclude it from the average because he didn’t play a full year and it was not due to injury.

There’s a perception out there that Hanley Ramirez is injury prone.  That should be revised to state that he has experienced significant injury problems in two of the last three years.  He’s been dependable the rest of his career.  And much more dependable than Tulowitzki.

Tulo has only surpassed the 140 games played threshold three times in seven years! That’s six out of eight for Hanley.

The two seasons Ramirez did not reach the 140 game mark were due to shoulder surgery and a thumb ligament injury.  I have nothing to back this up, but those don’t indicate “injury prone” to me, whereas Tulowitzki’s leg injuries do earn him the “injury prone” label in my mind.

Hanley Ramirez Is Getting Old.

He’s currently 29 and will be 30 during the 2014 season.  Tulowitzki is only 10 months younger.

Hanley Can’t Repeat His 21% Home Run per Fly Ball Rate

(more…)

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Strategy Tip - Widen Your Frame

Strategy Tip – Widen Your Frame

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You are in the middle of the pack in the league standings, with your biggest opportunity to gain rotisserie points being in HR and RBI.  Your other offensive categories are solid, but you recognize that the batting average category is tightly contested.  If your team batting average were to drop a few points it would cause you to plummet in the category.

You have received this trade offer:

You Give Player A:  projected for .290 BA, 80 R, 16 HR, 65 RBI, 15 SB

You Get Player B:  projected for .245 BA, 80 R, 26 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB

Trades like this are difficult to evaluate.  Are the additional 10 HR and 20 RBI worth the 45 point decline in BA?

The proposed deal looks great from a HR and RBI perspective.  But you have concerns about the batting average aspect.  You believe the points you will gain in HR and RBI will be canceled out by the loss in batting average.

So you reject the deal.

Framing

Enter the concept of framing, or the lens through which you view and evaluate decisions. In the scenario above, this decision was made strictly under the assumption that this was a one-for-one trade.

While the offer was a one-for-one trade, you should not treat it that way.  This is a narrow point of view.  Your decision making can improve dramatically if you widen your frame.

Back To The Example

It’s short sighted to believe that this would be the only transaction you would make to solve your HR and RBI problem.  Whether you accept this trade offer or not, your next step is probably to evaluate your bench players against the free agent list and take action there to add HR and RBI potential or to protect yourself in BA.

You’re not going to cut Player A.  It will be someone else on the chopping block.  Someone like Bench Player X.

Bench Player X:  projected for .260, 60 R, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 5 SB

And let’s assume there are two interesting free agent candidates available:

Free Agent Y:  projected for .295, 60 R, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 10 SB

Free Agent Z:  projected for .250, 65 R, 22 HR, 65 RBI, 5 SB

Player X (and the free agents) should be included in your analysis of the trade.  Widen your decision making frame. (more…)

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Be A Contrarian… Zag

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In this post I am going to share with you one of the simplest and most effective fantasy baseball strategies you can implement.  You’re already aware of the strategy, but I’m going to dive a little deeper and dissect it into two components.  One to apply during the off-season and one for during the season.

Teach A Man To Fish…

“The fishing is the best where the fewest go…” ~ Timothy Ferriss

I cherry picked this quote from Timothy Ferriss’ book, “The 4-Hour Work Week”.  I read the book for some ideas on how to improve this blog.  And while it has nothing to do with fantasy baseball, this particular quote does a phenomenal job of illustrating this simple strategy I want to share with you.

We all know fantasy baseball is a competition.  It’s all about gaining an advantage and differentiating yourself from your opponents.

It is impossible to differentiate yourself if you’re following the crowd.  If you’re doing the same things as everyone else, you’ll get the same results.  If you’re fishing in the crowded fishing holes, you’re battling for the same school of fish.

To separate yourself from the pack you have to think differently.  You have to be different.  

If you’re reading the same fantasy baseball advice and commentary as the rest of the competition, you’ll be battling for the same players, you’ll be employing the same strategies, and winning might just come down to luck, timing, or random variations.  I hate luck!

OK.  How Do I Apply This?

The easiest way to execute this strategy is to be a contrarian.  To zag when everyone else is zigging.  To fish where no one else is fishing.  

Think to yourself about what everyone else is doing and what you can do to be and think differently.

You can implement this thinking on two levels:

  1. Behavior and preparation
  2. Player valuation

Let’s take a look.

1.  Behavior and Preparation

This is the part of the strategy to focus on during the off-season.  It is all about out working, out smarting, and “out learning” your opponents.  Do things they’re not.  Zag.

Read (shameless plug – I’ll give you two free e-books).  Get strategies and suggestions from respected experts.  Listen to podcasts.  Don’t just show up to the draft with a token cheat sheet.  Create your own rankings.

You might not be able to do all of these things.  Not all at once and not all in one off-season.  I’m sure you have a life outside of playing fake baseball games.

But if you can study up on two or three new statistics each off-season, you are developing skills and building knowledge that will help you long-term.  Think about the knowledge you can accumulate after three, five, or ten years.  Think about the competitive advantage you can create for yourself.

Most guys won’t be doing this.  They’ll be doing mock drafts, perusing a draft guide, and reading a few sleeper articles.  The same thing year-after-year.  You can take advantage of this.

I’m a firm believer that to be the best at this game you have to make your own decisions.  Only you can be the best manager of your fantasy team.  No expert can make educated decisions for your team.  By reading and studying strategy, you are building skills that will push you in that direction.

You’re off to a good start by reading this blog.  I’m not here to make decisions for your team.  Or to tell you who to pickup or trade for.  I’m here to share important resources you can use and help you develop the skills to give you a competitive advantage.

But how can you zag when it comes to specific player-related decisions?

2.  Player Valuation

This part of the strategy that applies most in-season.  And despite what you might think, it has little to do with Sabermetrics.  You don’t need great skill in Excel.  It has very little to do with data and player analysis.  This is more an exercise in economics than it is baseball statistics.

More specifically, recognizing the optimal time to buy or sell players AND acting during those times.   “Arbitrage” is another word for this, as Jonah Keri discusses in his book “The Extra 2 Percent”.

Everyone Knows Buy Low, Sell High.  You’re Not Telling Me Anything New.

I agree everyone knows this.  But all that “buy low, sell high” advice is in terms of player performance.

To take this strategy to the next level (more…)

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